MentalPerformanceIndex.com for Football

Sadly for Dolphins fans but a blessing for everyone else, the new World Football League lured away three of Miami's best players in Larry Csonka, Jim Kiick, and Paul Warfield. It’s almost impossible to recover from such a blow, but the Dolphins almost made it back. Instead, quarterback Kenny Stabler and the Raiders ended hopes on a last second “lame duck” pass and Miami's glory vanished. Into this power vacuum leapt one of the greatest teams in NFL history - the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In the 60s and early 70s the Steelers were an absolutely horrible bunch, led by an unproven and error prone Terry Bradshaw, a lousy defense, and clumsy play calling. Even in 1974, this 10-3-1 team and their coach Chuck Knoll were seen as the league surprise with young talent. Credit Knoll and company for engineering the best draft in NFL history in 1974. Their first five picks produced two future Hall of Famers (middle linebacker Jack Lambert and center Mike Webster) and two great receivers in Lynn Swann and John Stallworth. Lambert would become the final piece in the famed Steel Curtain defense. I actually met Lambert in 1983 in New Orleans when he was playing for the Saints later in his career. After the Saints lost, he stormed the hotel, rushed over to the elevator, and punched the button so hard he almost broke his hand. He played with intensity and desire even after the game had ended. I also met Terry Bradshaw the same day, as he was now commentating. I was working as a bellman at the New Orleans Marriott while attending college and the visiting team often stayed in this hotel during Saints games. I fondly remember conversing with many players that year. Enough nostalgia, let's get on with Super Bowl IX!

The Steelers had rolled through Buffalo and Oakland in the playoffs to set up the match with the Vikings who were back once again with a terrific defense and wily veteran quarterback Fran Tarkenton. The Vikings produced a 10-4 regular season, destroyed St. Louis in the playoffs and edged the Los Angeles Rams in the AFC championship to set up the showdown. Many thought Minnesota would finally capture glory against the newer and less experienced boys from the town showcased in Mr. Rogers Neighborhood (yes, Pittsburgh holds that distinction!) Instead the Nordic warriors would frustrate themselves again, and they achieved even more frustration in 1977 against Dallas. The Vikings, like the much later Bills, never figured out how to win the big one.

This game started out pathetically slow as neither offense could do anything. The first half ended in a 2-0 Pittsburgh lead after Tarkenton recovered a fumbled handoff and was tackled in the end zone. The third quarter opened with Minnesota flubbing a return and the Steelers scored on a short drive to take a 9-0 lead. Minnesota then blocked a punt which Terry Brown recovered in the end zone to make it 9-6. Suddenly America had the first exciting Super Bowl in four years with ten minutes to go. Pittsburgh, however, took the ball and drove a nail into the Minnesota coffin, holding the ball almost 7 minutes. The drive included key runs by game MVP Franco Harris a run by Rocky Bleier, a 30 yard Bradshaw pass to Larry Brown, and 4 yard pass to Brown to win the game 16-6.

An MPI analysis shows that in this relatively sloppy game, defense prevailed, but that Pittsburgh’s defensive prevailed much more. Drafting Jack Lambert was indeed a smart move! The Steelers .653 to .357 defense to offense superiority shows this clearly. The Steelers performed better on special teams although both special teams units were mediocre (.475 to .421). The Vikings defense won the battle against Pittsburgh’s offense .517 to .479 and they were much better still in pressure moments (.692 to .339). Pressure defense favored the Steelers .625 to .575, but total pressure play favored Minnesota .641 to .458. The most telling statistic, the Total MPI score, decisively favored the Steelers .539 to .453.

In sum, it is abundantly clear that Pittsburgh performed better than the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IX, so their win was justified by their performance. They won with superior defense and special teams, and proved better on 4 of 7 MPI categories.

This game supported the belief (to be tested in this study) that defense wins Super Bowls. Neither offense was impressive. Both defenses were awesome. But the “Steel Curtain,” not the “Purple People Eaters,” established themselves as kings of the hill. By 1980 the Steelers would have four Super Bowl rings, greatly eclipsing the accomplishments of Miami and Green Bay. There is no doubt that Pittsburgh was the team of the 70s, but you would have never suspected this even after this relatively close game on the scoreboard, and after the poor offensive performance of the Steelers in Super Bowl IX. Terry Bradshaw was no star yet, and it’s scary to think of how good this team became when they added offense to an already dominant defense!

The MPI or Mental Performance Index is the first system of scoring developed in sports which includes in the scoring key mental factors such as pressure management, reduction of mental errors and focused execution. It was developed by licensed clinical and sport performance psychologist Dr. John F. Murray in 2002 to show the extreme importance of mental factors in sports. It is much more accurate than the final score and other statistics in showing how one team performed relative to another team. It has almost perfectly estimated the relative performance of the teams before each of the past 5 Super Bowls. Dr. Murray's MPI forecast has also beaten the official Super Bowl spread 4 out of 5 times now. He has appeared on hundreds of radio and television shows, and the forecast has also appeared in hundreds of articles. Why all the focus, energy and interest in this topic? Because it so clearly demonstrates the importance of mental factors in sports. For more information about the MPI or Dr. Murray's services, please call 561-596-9898 or send an email to: johnfmurray@mindspring.com